The US Just Bombed Iran… Now What?

Written By Leeja Miller

Sources:


Transcript:

Haha well I blew it, you guys. That was my prediction from Wednesday’s episode last week about the escalating tensions with Iran. Then Trump bombed Iran on Saturday. So you’re tuned into Why, America? With me, Leeja Miller, and today we truly will be asking the question WHY AMERICA?? We’ll discuss the lasting repercussions of Saturday’s attack and what’s to come. First, however, I wanted to mention a few headlines that are getting lost in the wall to wall coverage of Iran, because one convenient outcome of starting war in the middle east is that the atrocities happening elsewhere, including on US soil, go unnoticed. I may have gotten that prediction wrong, but I’m not a total fool!! [fool me once Bush clip]

In the New York City Mayoral primary race, New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has gained 10 points in a new Emerson poll, which has him at 32% support, just shy of Andrew Cuomo’s 35%. However, New York City does rank choice voting. Since it appears no one will get over 50% of the vote, that means there will be multiple rounds of retabulations. Whoever has the fewest people rank them first will be eliminated, and the 2nd choices of the people who ranked that lowest person will be redistributed, and so on and so on until one person gets over 50%. In Emerson’s latest voting simulation, based on current polling, they predict that Mamdani will prevail over Cuomo, 52% to 48%. This race has been closely followed not only because Mamdani is an interesting candidate and it’s shocking Cuomo had the gall to even run again after so many controversies, not least of which the one where multiple women credibly accused him of sexual harassment, forcing him to resign only 4 years ago. It’s also important because the two lead contenders represent the divisions between old guard, bought out Democratic politicians and a new progressive wave. It could also signal the pendulum swing and backlash against Trump if a young, progressive person of color wins not only the primary but, ultimately, the mayoral race. Especially in the largest city in the country with a huge immigrant population that the Trump regime has vowed to target in the coming months for increased raids, just like it has in LA. The city’s next mayor will need to be ready to handle that. Election day is TOMORROW in New York City so don’t forget to show up to vote in the Democratic primary. The election day for NYC mayor is scheduled for November 4th.

In other news, the LA Dodgers have pledged $1 million in support to families affected in the area by ICE raids. Last Thursday, a unanimous three judge appellate court panel upheld Trump’s ability to take control of the California state national guard, saying that the protests in LA provided sufficient reason for Trump to use state National Guard to ensure immigration laws were being enforced. The court stopped short and did not agree with the Trump regime’s contention that actually their decision to federalize the National Guard was above the law and could not be reviewed by a court at all. Which I know everything is meant to be shocking and nothing should surprise us, but it is genuinely shocking that government lawyers are telling judges, in court, in their official legal capacity as lawyers for the government, that actually the actions of the president should not be reviewable by the court at all. That’s insane. The panel also found that since Pete Hegseth went through the general in charge of the National Guard in California, that was sufficient to follow the law that requires the federal government go “through the Governor” of any state in which they wish to take control of the national guard. The court decided the general of the california national guard was Gavin Newsom’s agent, and Hegseth sent the directive through him, so that’s good enough. The case is still being litigated, however. That appellate ruling was just on the temporary injunction attempting to block Trump’s use of the National Guard in LA. In a visit to LA last week, JD claimed that the national guard and marines deployed in LA were definitely still very much needed there. The original executive order allowed for the deployment of the guard for 60 days, lord knows there’s no real end date or consequences if they overstay that 60 day directive. So, for now, the federal government has hundreds of troops on the ground controlling the second largest city in America, and Trump has promised to do the same in Chicago and New York.

And in Palestine, while the world watches what Israel is doing in Iran, over 55,000 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in Gaza, and the Israeli military has reportedly engaged in near daily atrocities against Palestinians seeking food and aid, opening fire on a group of civilians waiting for aid trucks filled with flour last week and killing 59 people in a scene that witnesses described was “like a horror movie.”

And meanwhile, as a handy distraction from the genocide in Gaza, tensions between Israel and Iran have been mounting, see my still relevant episode from Wednesday for more background, and on Saturday evening Trump bombed three sites in Iran linked to the country’s nuclear program. The attack was announced via a post on Truth Social, which is truly the most chaotic way to announce something like that, which is definitely on purpose. The more caught off guard we all are, the more he is able to control the narrative. And I’m getting deja vu here because the reality is that moving forward it’s likely going to be all about narrative, just like our involvement in Iraq in the early 2000s was. Just like every military aggression we’ve ever committed against another country. It is now the job of all Trump’s generals and cabinet to put the right spin on what just happened and what’s about to happen and then feed it to Trump so he can parrot it out. So far that doesn’t seem to be going exactly according to plan, as Trump has now indicated that he is interested in regime change in Iran, something that the defense leadership has flat out denied is a goal. That’s the problem with having a rotting geratric corpse as a president, he accidentally gets confused which things were the secrets and which were the propaganda.

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The ongoing conflict with Iran is complicated, and the way each action is interpreted varies depending on the bias of the media. This headline from CNBC caught my eye “Oil prices fall 7% after Iran strike on U.S. base in Qatar leaves no reported casualties” It’s helpful to see in the Ground News browser extension that this publication is pretty centrist, so to get a fuller picture of the story on all sides of the political spectrum I can click on Full Coverage. On the Ground News website I can see that 285 sources are covering this topic, with interpretations varying wildly depending on the bias of the publication.

For example, left leaning Semafor uses the headline “Oil markets brace for shock after US attack on Iran” while right leaning New York Post uses the headline “US stocks poised to shake off Iran strike as oil rises, crypto surges.” Depending on where you get your news, you’re going to get very different takes on the same story. And if you only pay attention to one side or the other you might miss the full picture of the national conversation happening around the issue on all sides of spectrum.

This is where Ground News comes in - and why I've been using them for over a year. Today’s partner Ground News is an app and website that offers tools to help you critically analyze the news you read, providing context to understand the full picture.

By using the Ground News Vantage Subscription, I can also see the blindspot feed where I can see stories disproportionately covered by one side of the political spectrum. For example, few left-leaning sources are covering the story “Threat of sleeper cells in US has ‘never been higher’: CBP” Interesting. I feel better equipped to make sense of what’s happening in the world without being influenced by just one perspective. And listen I’m not the only one who loves Ground News, the Nobel Peace Center even called it "an excellent way to stay informed, avoid echo chambers, and expand your worldview.”

I’m always really impressed with Ground News and genuinely think they’re a great resource. If you want to stay informed on US Politics and more Subscribe through this QR code or our link below at ground dot news slash leeja for 40% off this unlimited access Vantage Plan. It comes out to $5 a month for unlimited access to ALL the features I’ve mentioned. Thanks Ground News!

Let’s break this down. What is the immediate aftermath of these strikes on Saturday and what is the likely response from Iran? Trump claimed in his brief address to the nation on Saturday night that the three attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities in Fordo, Nantaz, and Isfahan, quote unquote “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities. That is per usual hyperbolic, though it’s still unclear how much damage was actually done during the strikes, in addition to the damage Israel has done and continues to do as attacks continue between Israel and Iran. Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization confirmed that the strikes happened, but Iran has maintained that the sites were not completely destroyed. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says it was way too early to determine the extent of the damage. And JD told Meet The Press that the strikes had “substantially delayed their development of a nuclear weapon” but did not reiterate the “completely obliterated” claim. The Israeli military concluded that Fordo had sustained serious damage but had not been completely destroyed. Even Trump himself walked it back on Sunday, saying that the damage to the sites quote “is said to be ‘monumental.’” Said by whomst? Who knows! But that’s certainly less certain than his “completely and totally obliterated” language less than 24 hours earlier.

Today, Monday, the UN’s nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency held an emergency meeting during which the Agency’s director Rafael Grossi confirmed that craters could be seen at Fordo, the large nuclear site buried deep underground that only the US bunker buster bombs could penetrate–we dropped 14 on Fordo alone. He said that the damage to Fordo was likely “very significant” but also confirmed quote “no one, including the IAEA, is in a position to have fully assessed the underground damage at Fordo.” He also condemned the attacks, saying “armed attacks on nuclear facilities should never take place” and called for the US and Iran to return to the negotiating table, something that appears to be impossible now that hostilities have escalated. And Israel continues to send missiles into Iran, including at the sites the US just bombed, and Iran is retaliating against Israel with strikes of its own.

Let’s talk about Iran’s response. On Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran quote “reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people.” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying “the number, dispersion, and size of US military bases in the region are not a strength, but have doubled their vulnerability.” The Revolutionary Guard Corps could coordinate with Iran’s proxies in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and other proxies in Iraq and Syria, all of which are in close proximity to US military bases throughout the region. Iran has repeatedly threatened to attack US assets in the region if the US gets involved in the conflict. Iran also has allies in Russia and China. Iran’s foreign minister is already in Moscow right now talking to Putin and Iran’s supreme leader wrote a letter to Putin asking for help. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev claimed that quote “A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.” Iran also controls parts of the Straight of Hormuz, including shipping lanes through which fully a fifth of the world’s oil passes. Iranian parliament has already voted in favor of shutting down the shipping lanes, but the final decision rests with Iran’s security council. A shutdown could create chaos in the world economy, as gas prices will increase along with the increased costs of transporting oil. This would affect not only gas station prices but also the price of food and literally everything else, which could cause global inflation. In the US, we likely wouldn’t run out of oil, we have reserves, but costs would increase.

Iran could also simply create doubt and chaos along the strait of Hormuz, which would be enough deterrent to send oil tankers away out of fear of losing tens of millions of dollars in ships and oil. So Iran wouldn’t have to formally shut anything down if the threats are enough to disrupt the global oil supply chain. And reports are that’s already happening. The UK Royal Navy said it observed “electronic interference in the Strait of Hormuz” and, following the report, at least two massive tankers carrying oil reportedly made U-turns while halfway through the straight. That being said, China is Iran’s most important oil customer, and Russia relies on Iranian oil as well, so any disruption to global oil shipping could anger Iranian allies that they likely would need to depend on should the conflict escalate further.

Iran has also threatened to leave the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and criticized the UN’s nuclear watchdog IAEA for reports that Iran claims led to the current escalation. Indeed there’s been a lot of conflicting information over what the IAEA said in the days leading up to the attacks. In the US intelligence community, there was consensus that Iran did not have nuclear bombs, nor was it close to producing those bombs. The IAEA intelligence indicated that Iran had enriched enough uranium up to 60% that, if they crossed the 90% threshold required for bombs, Iran would have enough to create 9 nuclear bombs. 60% is still an escalation of the uranium enrichment program, but it does not mean that Iran had nuclear bombs, nor did it necessarily mean they would have them in mere weeks. If Iran pulls out of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, under which it pledged not to develop a bomb, that could mean decreased transparency in Iran’s nuclear program. Iran is already barring IAEA inspectors from entering the bombed sites, and reports are that Iran had already begun moving enriched uranium out of key sites in the wake of Israel’s attacks that started ten days ago. Executive VP of the Quincy Institute in Washington DC Trita Parsi posted on twitter saying “Trump just guaranteed that Iran will be a nuclear weapons state in the next 5 to 10 years.”

It is very unlikely that Iran, which regards the US as the “Great Satan” is going to respond to this attack from the US with any interest in peace or further negotiations. If anything it is likely going to reinforce to Iran the importance of HAVING a nuclear bomb as deterrence from continued western aggressions and will only encourage it to race to actually build said bomb. Again, Iran does not have a nuclear bomb at this point. There is no intelligence anywhere indicating that it does. Netanyahu has been screaming that Iran is mere weeks away from developing a Nuclear bomb since literally the 90s. In 35 years that has not come to fruition. If they were gonna develop a bomb they would have in that time. But now they might. Likely not immediately, they may have been set back a few years, but after decades of fearmongering over the weapons they don’t have, they may finally get them. And continued bombardment by the US or Israel likely won’t stop them, because they still likely have some uranium, uranium that US officials have conceded they don’t know where it is, and they also have close ties with Russia and China, so their ability to access nuclear capabilities is high even if they themselves don’t have the bomb.

Even without a bomb, though, Iran now poses a greater threat to the US both abroad and domestically. Yesterday, the US State Department issued a “worldwide caution” alert for all Americans traveling abroad, saying “The conflict between Israel and Iran has resulted in disruptions to travel and periodic closure of airspace across the Middle East. There is the potential for demonstrations against U.S. citizens and interests abroad. The Department of State advises U.S. citizens worldwide to exercise increased caution.” In fact, just hours ago around noon central, Iranian state TV claimed strikes had been launched against US air bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Witnesses confirmed explosions in Qatar, saying explosions that looked like interceptions of missiles could be seen in the air over Doha.

The National Terrorism Advisory System issued a bulletin saying “The ongoing Iran conflict is causing a heightened threat environment in the United States. Low-level cyber attacks against US networks by pro-Iranian hacktivists are likely, and cyber actors affiliated with the Iranian government may conduct attacks against US networks. Iran also has a long-standing commitment to target US Government officials it views as responsible for the death of an Iranian military commander killed in January 2020. The likelihood of violent extremists in the Homeland independently mobilizing to violence in response to the conflict would likely increase if Iranian leadership issued a religious ruling calling for retaliatory violence against targets in the Homeland. Multiple recent Homeland terrorist attacks have been motivated by anti-Semitic or anti-Israel sentiment, and the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict could contribute to US-based individuals plotting additional attacks.” According to ABC News, the State Department has doubled the number of emergency evacuation flights for American citizens wishing to leave Israel and has ordered the departure of staff from the US Embassy in Lebanon. The US embassies and consulates in Afghanistan are also being evacuated. US citizens in Saudi Arabia and Turkey have been advised to take extra security precautions and avoid travel to military installations and US consulates. 700,000 US citizens live in Israel and many thousands live in Iran. 200 had fled from Iran to Azerbaijan as of Saturday.

Within the US, major cities have increased their security and warned residents to exercise increased caution. In New York and DC, security has been increased at sites of potential attacks like houses of worship or major governmental buildings, out of fear that a person already in the United States may feel motivated to violence in retaliation for the US involvement in Iran. Indeed, before the US strikes this weekend, Iran had warned Trump that it could activate terrorist sleeper cells within the US.

Despite Trump’s rhetoric that this attack was an isolated mission and, as long as Iran surrenders and agrees to peace, it was a one-and-done situation, neither Israel nor Iran seem interested in decreasing tensions, and the back and forth attacks have only escalated. Iran has retaliated against the US by attacking military bases in a few countries in the region but it’s unclear at this point whether it will continue targeting US assets in the region or seek to target Americans here at home. And it’s unclear whether Trump will truly be satisfied with what happened Saturday as a “one and done” mission, especially considering the fact that it doesn’t appear Iran’s nuclear capabilities were “completely obliterated” like Trump claimed and it is very likely that Iran still possesses extensive amounts of enriched uranium.

Moving forward, Republicans are likely to fall in line behind whatever rhetoric Trump decides to use to justify this military involvement in the middle east. Despite whatever he promised on the campaign trail, Trump does exactly what he wants, and the MAGA establishment and voters tend to fall in line behind him. After denying that Iran had nuclear capabilities back in March, Tulsi Gabbard, director of national intelligence, who Trump dismissed as being “wrong” last week, has already fallen in line, saying actually Iran could produce nuclear weapons within weeks, despite explicitly contradicting her testimony before Congress.

Trump has already called out Republican representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky for partnering with Democrats to introduce a War Powers Resolution barring Trump from initiating war in Iran without Congressional approval. Trump has promised to replace Massie with a “real American patriot.” That’s a promise Trump often makes good on, and like I’ve said in past episodes, MAGA is quick to root out any dissenting voices within the Republican party. That War Powers Resolution has gained increased support and momentum now that Trump has attacked Iran without seeking prior approval from Congress. It is true that the constitution gives Congress the power to declare war, but Congress has been tolerant of Presidents using force without authorization for decades, and the War Powers Act has loopholes that create incredibly subjective criteria for when a president can argue they HAD to act during armed conflict. So while technically it is unconstitutional for Trump to have entered us into a war in the middle east without prior approval from Congress, the reality is that presidents on both sides have gotten away with all sorts of attacks and atrocities without congressional approval, and Republican leaders in Congress have demonstrated giddy willingness to back Trump’s unilateral moves without question. Despite calls for impeachment, something that won’t happen with a Republican-controlled House, the only thing that Congress could do would be to pursue this War Powers Resolution introduced by Representatives Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie, which will likely be forced to a vote on Friday. Beyond that, we have seen that Trump and his advisors are willing to openly break the law and claim they aren’t, over and over and over again, and there’s nothing to indicate they aren’t going to do the same thing here.

When I posted on YouTube asking for your questions in the wake of Saturday’s strikes, the overwhelming sentiment was hopelessness and also wondering what to do. ConnorMLee asks “what do we do? I think a lot of us feel very powerless and like we may be collateral damage soon.” I’ll give you three things: continue protesting, in whatever capacity you can. Voicing popular dissent to war is a tale as old as time in this country and I think it’s a worthwhile pursuit. Educate yourself–this incident is making me aware of how woefully underinformed I am about the middle east generally, about our history with Iran, about the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. I was 11 when we went to war with Iraq in 2003. I saw the clips of Bush saying stupid things, I heard the term WMD or weapons of mass destruction over and over again, but I didn’t grasp what was happening, and I haven’t done enough to educate myself since then. There are of course TONS of books to choose from, but you gotta pick something and just start reading, so to give you some place to start, here’s what I’ve placed on hold from my public library. To learn about Iran, there’s All The Shahs Men: An American Coup And The Roots Of Middle East Terror. To learn about the Iraq war, there’s Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2003 to 2005. And then this newer book caught my eye, Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East. Again that’ll barely scratch the surface but you gotta start somewhere, and it is only beneficial to the fascists if we remain uninformed. If you have better book recommendations, comment them below. And then the final thing you can do is put down your phone, stop doom scrolling, and remember that you are here right now, take a deep breath, and likely not in immediate active danger. It can feel like everything is breaking news and you have to stay on top of every new thing 24/7. Believe me, I get it, it’s my literal job. The reality is that knowing exactly every detail about what’s happening somewhere 3000 miles away that you cannot control is actually not particularly helpful to anyone. Stay informed, yes. Read the news. But stop consuming the social media. It can make a serious situation feel all the more overwhelming if you’re also consuming the REACTIONS of millions of people on social media, as well as consuming it yourself and trying to process. You have to put up strong boundaries around your news time and the rest of your life. Because the reality is that even as atrocities unfold, even for those people living within the atrocities, life also continues. Children laugh and play in the sun, people get married, people are born, people fall in love, the world still turns, your body still needs movement and vegetables and a moment to decompress and remove yourself from the non-stop fight or flight stress response. Literally go out and touch grass.

If you want to support my work, all my videos are completely ad free and uncensored over on Patreon, Patreon dot com slash leeja miller.

Thank you to my multi-platinum patrons Philly Tech Dude, Marc, Sarah Shelby, Art, David, R_H, L’etranger (Lukus), Thomas Johnson, and Tay. Your generosity makes this channel what it is, so thank you!

And if you liked this episode, you’ll like the one from last week about the Israel, Iran conflict explained.

Leeja Miller
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The Israel-Iran Conflict, Explained